Terry O',
It is a great pity that 78 people had to pay with their lives for what would appear to be, if the analysts' theory is correct, an avoidable accident.
We often take Technical Integrity as a 'given', depending on the designers, operators and maintainers to do their jobs correctly. Yet, eternal vigilance is the only route to a safe environment. If indeed a log or other foreign body got into the penstock, clearly the trash racks have not done their job. The trash racks are under water, physically hidden from view. Such equipment need careful inspection and prompt attention if defects are found in these inspections.
The human cost is enormous, overshadowing the huge economic costs. When (if) the truth become known, I hope it will not be a repeat of the old story - a horse, a horse, a kingdom for a horse!
You put out a blog in AMP questioning the idea of deliberately lowering Reliability to reduce Maintenance Costs (in the context of hard times of belt-tightening). I hope that kind of approach did not result in this disaster.
Thank you for sharing the presentation.
ps. they are talking about the 140 pages investigation report which was available on the Rostekhnadzor website, does anyone has this?

update:
Investigations
Initial versions of the accident included a terror attack, but eventually technical failure was established as the true reason. Three independent investigations into the disaster have been launched, two of which have already produced their reports.

Report of the national civil engineering regulator Rostekhnadzor gave a detail account on how exactly events developed. Meanwhile the parliamentary commission was highly critical towards the owner of the hydro plant – RusHydro – and its direct management, who demonstrated “a low level of responsibility and professionalism and criminal neglect”. Parliamentarians also pointed out the lack of governmental control over the infrastructure.

Meanwhile, a criminal investigation is still underway, even though the Investigative Committee planned to be through with it by August. The report has been postponed until December after prosecutors requested additional research.
People,
The 'official' account as well as the Power magazine report seems to focus on the fatigue cracks on the cover flange and bolting, This does not explain the upward forces lifting the 1500T assembly through the roof. The article in the International Water Power & Dam Construction, Dec. 22, 2010, offers a more plausible theory of a water hammer as the main source, see
http://www.waterpowermagazine....sp?storyCode=2058518

If true, there is nothing to prevent the disaster happening again. The new turbines' installation started within months, so it is very likely to be of the same design. That the design is very poor considering the loading pattern, is quite evident. The same design weaknesses will remain.

The result of a proper RCA must be prevent recurrence, not find people to blame.

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